It's dishearten to see the forum so very quiet these days. I still feel grateful to many guides during the forum's old glory days when I started playing the game. Therefore, I would like to help the community by writing some guides. But, I still remember bad perception people jumping on people who write the guides indirectly insulting the writers' ideas instead of constructively discuss what's good or bad. As a result, I decide that I should write the guide that is more of my journal based on what I have experienced in this game.
Since there is no single way to play this game, it would be best to tell what I have been doing may give new players or even some old players an idea of how to do things on a long term basis, in a way that does not imply that it's the best way to play. And other players can also share their experience of what they have been doing as well. This would make the guide has no real author and even one day I quit this game, other players can continue to share the experiences that are more up to date.
Cassiel's Journal (as of March 26, 2018)
when the players' profiles was first introduced into the game, i had played VF for almost a year. I randomly looked at top arena players' profiles whom I believe to have played without buying orbs or buying very little (from a year time observation). One of the usual top 100 arena players' profiles in Everglades really caught my intention. It's the profile of Bansky whom I learned from the forum to be more of f2p than p2p player.
At that point of time, Bansky played almost 2000 more arena matches than me. For almost a year time, excluding 6-7 hrs of sleep per day, I hardly missed the regeneration of arena orbs so I started thinking of what had caused our matches to be far different. Is it because I didn't buy 5 arena orbs daily? But based on the assumption that Bansky is more of f2p than p2p so I had a good ground to believe that he didn't buy 5 arena orbs daily. I started thinking at what I might be doing different each day.
It didn't take long for me to realize that, every since I reached 3600 points, I usually skipped 2-3 arena matches a day when I found the opponents that I had very slim chance of winning in order to maintain my arena points at 4600. I started doing the calculation (which is the thing I hate most). And the number really surprised me. If I skipped 3 arena matches a day, I would miss almost 1100 arena matches in a year time. And even if I lost all those matches, I would still get 3300 blood tokens! There are still some 1000 arena matches difference left but it could come from playing more matches per day, arena orbs from marketplace (that I don't have) or buying from supply.
Back then, reaching 4600 arena points every week was not certain thing for me. Also being top 100 in arena for me depended on the mercy of meta shift. I was a frequent top 100 during the trigger rangers era. Fell out of it during the full guardian team meta. Reached top 100 from time to time during the talent era where mixed squads were widely used (guardian mystic team or trigger ranger in mixed with a shadow or any class of Rhea).
Since being top 100 doesn't reward anything more, I want to stick with my not buying arena orbs policy so I can use my gems where I can get a better return. I had to decide if I should care for being top 100 or to maintain 4600 arena points. I don't always miss 4600 arena points. But my decision should be made by taking into account the worst case scenario which is the case that I would miss 4600 arena points for 1 whole year. In the worst case scenario, I will miss 960 gems and 960 blood tokens (based on the difference of the prizes between 4300 arena points and 4600 arena points every week for one whole year), but I would be getting around 3000 blood tokens more based on my usual way of playing arena.
In my opinion, gems can be obtained by many sources without spending but blood tokens are limited to be obtained via arena only, therefore, I have decided to play every arena battles. So far, it's been many months after I stopped skipping arena battles at all. The decision has served me well. In the past, it would take me a little more than 1 month to buy 1 valiant ticket from arena merchant (after the price is increased to 7000 blood tokens) and 1 arena hero ticket. Now i can buy 1 valiant ticket and 1 arena hero ticket in 1 month time. Sometimes about a day late. Luckily, since the introduction of Cassandra, despite having only 1 Cassandra, I have always managed to reach 4600 arena points every week so as being in top 100 (but top 100 is just an illusion that can disappear any time when meta shifts). My win rate has dropped from 80% to 77% but I don't really care as it's just statistic.
My usual routine purchases from arena merchant are 1) buying arena chest everyday, 2) buying arena hero ticket and 3) buying valiant ticket. I don't buy hero ticket or skill rune ticket for my personal reason. In conclusion, based on my 499 days experience in VF, if you can maintain win rate above 75% and don't skip any arena battles (with 6-7 hrs of sleeping per day) in a month time, you should be able to obtain enough blood tokens to buy arena chests everyday, to buy valiant ticket every cool down reset and to have spared blood tokens to buy arena hero ticket (or any other stuff of your choice). Up to your own preference, you can also spend blood tokens to buy any arena hero you want max lb or max tp instead of buying valiant ticket as well.
As for the currently ongoing arena event rewards that we do not know how long it will last, the total gems rewarded from new event ladder are 200 gems so you use 200 gems as budget to obtain enough blood tokens to achieve all rewards. Depending on win rate, not everyone can get all rewards even if they buy orbs everyday. But it's up to you to decide whether spending more gems are worth investing for the arena event rewards. If you don't buy orbs at all, the whole 200 gems and the other rewards are your profit. It's also your option to buy orbs with more than 200 gems in a week time if you view that the non gem rewards are worth spending the gems for (this may not be the case for f2p players). With the 75% win rate or higher, you should be spending 25 - 100 gems to get all arena event rewards.
P.S. This is my just my way of playing. I'm sure there are many different ways of playing and thinking. Feel free to share yours in a constructive way